As a result of recent US government actions including tariffs, cross-border policies and entry restrictions, global business travel professionals are newly navigating a complex and uncertain landscape.
This has the potential impact on business travel volume, spending and revenue for 2025.
According to a new poll conducted by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), a significant portion of over 900 global industry respondents are anticipating declines ahead and overall optimism has taken a hit in the last few weeks, reflecting the uncertainty gripping the sector and other industries.
Recent US government actions were defined in the GBTA poll as tariffs on imported products, US entry restrictions for travellers from specific countries, advisories against travel to the US, cross-border policies resulting in detainment risks, and decreased business travel for US federal employees.
As a result of these multiple initiatives, the poll reveals that:
Less than half of global buyers (44 per cent) anticipate their organisation’s business travel spending and volume in 2025 will not be impacted, compared to 25 per cent of travel suppliers who say the same for their business travel revenue.
Almost a third (29 per cent) of global travel buyers expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025, averaging a 21 per cent decrease. Additionally, a fairly large portion of travel buyers (19 per cent) are uncertain about what the impact will be.
Related, 27 per cent of buyers now predict a 20 per cent decrease on average in their business travel spending this year. (Notably, with global business travel spending forecast to reach $1.63 trillion in 2025, that could represent a potential decline in spending of up to $88 billion.)
Some 37 per cent of travel suppliers and travel management company (TMC) professionals anticipate a decline of 18 per cent on average in related revenue.
Because of overall concerns, only 31 per cent of global industry professionals remain optimistic about the overall industry outlook for this year, while 40 per cent are neutral.
This marks a significant decline from GBTA’s November 2024 poll where 67 per cent of global industry professionals reported an optimistic outlook for 2025 and 26 per cent were neutral.
“While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government.
“Traveling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections,” said Suzanne Neufang, chief executive of GBTA.
“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions.
“This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”
Neufang added there are two key factors to watch that would influence longer-term impact for business travel: if there’s sustained economic pressure or uncertainty weighing on company budgets and if cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US are restricted.
Methodology
A total of 905 responses were received by GBTA from global travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa and Middle East for the poll fielded March 31 to April 8, 2025.
