Global air cargo tonnages have shown no sign yet of a post-holiday season recovery, whereas last year there was already an upswing by the end of the first week, consistent with a continued softening of market conditions.
The latest preliminary figures from WorldACD Market Data indicate, that from January 2 to 8 worldwide tonnages to be stable compared with the previous week, while last year in the same period an increase of +4 per cent was observed.
The underlying trend, therefore, seems to be a global weakening of demand. However, average rates held firm in the first week of 2023, showing an increase of +1 per cent compared with the previous week, whereas last year a substantial decrease was recorded of -5 per cent.
Average worldwide rates
Comparing weeks 52 and 1 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages decreased -27 per cent below their combined total in weeks 50 and 51, with a -5 per cent decrease in capacity, while average worldwide rates declined -3 per cent – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
In this two-week period, tonnages were significantly down between all regions, as is common this time of year. Notable decreases were recorded between Europe and Central & South America (-34 per cent eastbound, -44 per cent westbound), between Europe and North America (-34 per cent eastbound, -42 per cent westbound), between Europe and Africa (southbound -38 per cent, northbound -27 per cent) and between Europe and Asia Pacific (-34 per cent eastbound, -15 per cent westbound).
Year-on-Year perspective
Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 52 and 1 was down -21 per cent compared with the equivalent period last year, at -1 per cent lower capacity. Notably, tonnages ex-North America are down by -29 per cent, and ex-Asia Pacific tonnages are -26 per cent below their strong levels this time last year. But there were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops on tonnages outbound from Europe (-18 per cent) and Middle East & South Asia (-12 per cent).
Overall capacity has fallen slightly (-1 per cent) compared to the previous year and is down from Asia Pacific (-11 per cent), Central & South America (-5 per cent) and Europe (-2 per cent), whereas from Africa (+12 per cent), North America (+4 per cent) and Middle East & South Asia (+4 per cent) capacity remains above its levels this time last year.
Worldwide rates are currently -28 per cent below their unusually elevated levels this time last year at an average of $3.08 per kilo in week 1, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.
